Where to Be in Tokyo When a Big Earthquake Hits

What Makes a Place Safe or Dangerous?

A few key factors decide how safe your spot is when the ground starts shaking:

• The Ground You’re On: Solid, elevated land like hills or plateaus holds up better than soft, low-lying areas. Places near rivers or on reclaimed land—think alluvial plains or deltas—can turn to mush (liquefaction) or shake violently, wrecking buildings.

• Old Wooden Buildings: Pre-1981 wooden houses, built before Japan’s tough building codes, often collapse or catch fire. Neighborhoods packed with these, called “mokumitsu” (dense wooden areas), are trouble, especially if narrow streets block escape routes or fire trucks.

• Building Density and Roads: Crowded areas with tight streets are risky. Fires spread fast, and rescuers can’t get through. Wider roads and open spaces like parks make evacuation and firefighting easier.

• Modern Buildings: After June 1981, Japan’s new building codes required structures to survive quakes up to 6+ or 7 on the JMA scale without collapsing. Older buildings? Not so much. In the Kumamoto quake, 28% of pre-1981 wooden homes collapsed, compared to just 9% of newer ones.

The Worst Places to Be

These neighborhoods are the riskiest during a big quake. They’re often on shaky ground near rivers, stuffed with old wooden houses, and prone to fires or collapses. If you live here, consider your building’s age and your evacuation plan.

1. Sumida Ward (Kyojima 2-chome and 3-chome)
   You’re in trouble here. Sumida sits on soft alluvial plains by the Sumida River, where the ground shakes hard and can liquefy. Kyojima’s packed with pre-1981 wooden homes, many from before World War II. Narrow streets make it tough to escape or fight fires. The city rates this area Level 5—highest risk—for collapses and blazes. If you’re in an old house here, a quake could bring it down, and fires could trap you.

2. Adachi Ward (Yanagihara 2-chome, Southern Adachi)
   Southern Adachi’s another danger zone. It’s on soft soil along the Arakawa River, perfect for liquefaction and intense shaking. You’ll find lots of old wooden houses in tight clusters, ready to collapse or burn. Narrow roads don’t help. This is another Level 5 spot. If you’re here, check if your building meets modern standards or plan a quick route to open ground.

3. Arakawa Ward (Arakawa 6-chome)
   Arakawa’s close to the Arakawa River, sitting on shaky alluvial soil. Old wooden buildings dominate, and tight streets slow down rescues. It’s Level 5 for fire and collapse risks. If you call this area home, know that fires could spread fast after a quake, and the ground won’t do you any favors.

4. Katsushika Ward (Western Katsushika)
   Western Katsushika’s on soft plains near the Arakawa, so expect liquefaction and strong shaking. It has fewer wooden houses than Sumida, but enough to worry about fires. Some roads are a bit wider, which helps, but it’s still risky. You’re better off here than in Sumida, but not by much.

5. Koto Ward (Northern Koto)
   Northern Koto’s partly on reclaimed land, which is terrible for quakes—think liquefaction and sinking. While newer buildings are common, older wooden pockets remain. Being near the Sumida River adds fire and even tsunami risks in extreme cases. If you’re in a modern high-rise, you’re safer, but the ground’s still a weak link.

The Best Places to Be

These areas give you the best shot at staying safe. They’re on solid ground, have more modern buildings, and offer easier escape routes. If you’re picking a place to live or work, start here.

1. Chiyoda Ward
   Chiyoda’s your safest bet. It’s on solid, elevated ground that doesn’t shake much or liquefy. Most buildings—like government offices and corporate HQs—are modern, with tech like seismic dampers or base isolation to absorb shocks. Wide roads and open spaces, like Hama-rikyu Gardens, make evacuation easy. If you’re in Chiyoda, you’re in good hands.

2. Minato Ward
   Minato’s another strong choice. It sits on stable ground, and you’ll find high-rises like Roppongi Hills built with cutting-edge quake-proofing. Wide boulevards and parks give you room to breathe during a disaster. Whether you’re working or living here, Minato’s solid soil and modern buildings keep risks low.

3. Shibuya Ward
   Shibuya’s on elevated, firm ground, so shaking’s less intense. Most buildings are newer, with fewer old wooden houses than eastern Tokyo. Places like Yoyogi Park are perfect for evacuation. You’re pretty safe here, especially in a post-1981 building.

4. Bunkyo Ward
   Bunkyo’s a quiet, safe spot on stable, high ground. Liquefaction’s not a worry, and you won’t find many old wooden houses. Neighborhoods like Hongo or Koishikawa have modern buildings and open spaces. If you want peace of mind in a residential area, Bunkyo’s a great pick.

5. Nerima Ward
   Nerima, out west, has solid ground and more space between houses, cutting fire risks. Most buildings are newer, and you’ve got open areas for evacuation. It’s not as central as Chiyoda, but it’s a safe, low-key option for families or anyone wanting distance from risky eastern wards.

Extra Tips to Stay Safe

• Watch for Liquefaction and Tsunamis: Koto, Edogawa, and parts of Sumida are prone to liquefaction. Coastal areas could face tsunamis in rare cases. Check Tokyo’s hazard maps before moving or buying property.

• Live in Modern Buildings: Even in a risky ward like Sumida, a 2019-built apartment is safer than an old wooden house in Shibuya. Look for post-1981 buildings or retrofitted older ones. Get a professional inspection if you’re unsure.

• Know Your Evacuation Spots: Safe areas have “hinanjo” (evacuation zones) like parks or schools. Find yours and keep a survival kit ready with water, food, and emergency contacts.

Final Thoughts

When Tokyo’s next big quake hits, your safety hinges on where you are and what’s around you. Stay away from places like Sumida, Adachi, or Arakawa—they’re on soft ground with old, fire-prone houses. Stick to Chiyoda, Minato, or Shibuya for solid soil and modern buildings. Wherever you are, check your building’s construction date, study hazard maps, and have an escape plan. Tokyo’s seismic future is real, but with the right choices, you can face it with confidence.

Sources:

• Tokyo Metropolitan Government, Bureau of Urban Development

• The Mainichi, “Tokyo gov't releases hazard area rankings”

• Tokyo Portfolio Real Estate, “Guide to Earthquake-Resistant Buildings”

• Dr. Asset Blog, “What Happens If a Major Earthquake Strikes Tokyo?”

• PLAZA HOMES, “Earthquake Countermeasures for Buildings in Japan”

• E-Housing, “Tokyo’s Safest Neighborhoods”

• SEKAI PROPERTY, “Tokyo’s Most Dangerous Areas in an Earthquake”